Artificial General Intelligence and Large Language Models

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Artificial General Intelligence and Large Language Models

As I described in the first article of the “Artificial Intelligence Seasons” series, the technological singularity storm is on the horizon, with Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) being one of the most hyped concepts. Let’s take a closer look at what AGI entails and its implications.

AGI vs. Human Intelligence

Surprisingly, there is no unified definition for ‘general intelligence’ or even ‘intelligence’. Historically, the prevailing thought was that only humans possessed the capacity to be classified as intelligent. Thus, animals like dogs, cats, elephants, or even chimpanzees were not considered intelligent. This brings us to the somewhat sad realisation that ‘intelligence’ typically refers exclusively to ‘human intelligence. Why ‘sad’? Because we know that dogs and cats can plan complex hunting strategies, elephants can draw, and chimpanzees can count and learn to understand words (e.g., Koko, who learned up to 1,000 signs). These abilities are driven by the neocortex, a brain organ common to mammals.

There is also a new, more radical view. Postulating that “the very process of development has an intelligence of its own: for example, if you take a tadpole (the precursor to a frog) and manually scramble its facial organs, those facial organs will relocate back to the correct place as the tadpole matures. …. Levin defines “intelligence” as the capacity to achieve the same goal via different means, and over the years, he and others have documented case after case of such adaptability. “[2]

What’s so special about the human brain? The short answer is that the human neocortex is larger (relative to body mass). More detailed answer: it has a greater capacity that allows humans to form language and reasoning. Language facilitates communication and the transfer of knowledge, which has significantly accelerated human evolution over the last 20,000 years. How does the human brain produce language? Most scientists describe it as an “emergent phenomenon.” This phenomenon is aptly described in a recent Quanta Magazine article: “The world is full of such emergent phenomena: large-scale patterns and organisation arising from innumerable interactions between component parts. Yet, there is no agreed scientific theory to explain emergence. Loosely, the behaviour of a complex system might be considered emergent if it can’t be predicted from the properties of the parts alone”

[1]. In simple terms, at some level of brain (neural network) capacity, language can emerge from complex behaviours of subtle processes in the brain – sounds nice. Still, unfortunately, it does not answer the central question: How?

Let’s summarise: Intelligence lacks a clear definition and has historically been considered exclusive to humans. However, animals demonstrate cognitive abilities driven by their neocortex, challenging this view. Additionally, developmental processes, such as tadpoles rearranging facial organs, suggest inherent intelligence. The human brain’s larger neocortex supports language and reasoning, which are key for communication and knowledge transfer. However, the exact mechanisms of how these abilities emerge remain unclear, highlighting gaps in our understanding of intelligence.

Could ChatGPT be Classified as a Junior AGI?

Large Language Models (LLMs) like ChatGPT and Google Gemini are primarily statistical models that rely on mathematical formulas to identify patterns, unlike the human neocortex or neural networks, which learn and adapt from complex patterns. They employ techniques like word2vec to describe the correlation between words, representing them as vectors in high-dimensional space to capture their meanings and relationships. Until recently, no one would have bet that language models would

show any signs of intelligent behaviour. However, starting with GPT-3.5, these models exhibited an “illusion” of human-like conversation capabilities. This sparked a debate about whether to treat such models as primitive AGI. With the latest GPT-4.0, which allows people to pass almost any exam better than the average human, this debate has become even more intense.

To understand the implications of this debate, we can reflect on the ‘Chinese Room’ experiment, the famous thought experiment designed by John Searle. The ‘Chinese Room’ argues that a computer can process symbols to mimic understanding a language without genuinely comprehending it, illustrating the difference between syntactic processing and actual understanding. This concept is crucial in understanding the limitations of current LLMs, which, despite their impressive capabilities, may not truly understand the language they process. Modern LLMs can be considered infant AGIs, sparking vast philosophical and scientific debates and opening immense possibilities for future transformations. Imagine robots like Atlas that speak, look, and walk like humans, working in parking lots, coffee shops, supermarkets, and even as teachers in the near future. This potential future underscores the importance of the ongoing debate about the true nature of intelligence in artificial systems.

Reflecting on the ‘Chinese Room’ experiment, the famous experiment designed by John Searle argues that a computer can process symbols to mimic understanding a language without genuinely comprehending it. It illustrates the difference between syntactic processing and actual understanding. We see models that, in some cases, are indistinguishable from humans and sometimes even outperform them. Modern LLMs can be considered infant AGIs, opening up vast philosophical and scientific debates and immense possibilities for future transformations. Imagine robots like Atlas that speak, look, and walk like humans, working in parking lots, coffee shops, supermarkets, and even as teachers soon.

Will LLMs Evolve into Mature AGIs?

Statistical models have their limitations and may never reach the level of the human neocortex. However, let’s explore this topic from the perspective of data scientists and specialists who work closely with data. Have you noticed the text on the images in this article? If so, you might have seen that the text is often a random assortment of letters. This reminds us of that LLMs are statistical models; the words on the image were selected based on statistical closeness to your prompt rather than the meaning you intended. This limitation underscores the current gap between machine-generated content and true human understanding. But who knows? As advancements continue, GPT-6 may have so many customisation parameters and refined algorithms that there will be no visible difference between the ‘illusion of knowing’ and ‘human knowing’. Such a development could blur the lines even further, raising new questions about the future of AI and its role in our lives.

Transformative Impact of LLMs/LMMs on Key Industries

LLMs and LMMs can revolutionise smart infrastructure by enhancing the efficiency of transportation systems, utilities, and communication networks. For example, Singapore’s AI-based traffic management system adjusts traffic light timings in real time, reducing congestion and emissions. LMMs analyze data from sensors to predict maintenance needs and prevent failures. AI-powered systems also optimise water and waste management, as seen in Barcelona’s smart water management, which detects leaks and saves water. In buildings, LLMs and LMMs optimize energy use, enhance security, and improve occupant comfort. For instance, Google’s use of DeepMind’s AI in its data centers reduced cooling energy by 40%. Smart buildings like The Edge in Amsterdam use AI to adjust lighting and temperature based on occupancy, significantly cutting energy usage. Transitioning to the manufacturing sector, LLMs and LMMs continue to boost productivity and efficiency. Siemens’ AI-driven predictive maintenance has reduced equipment downtime by 30%. Tesla plans to introduce humanoid robots into its car production lines, showcasing AI’s potential to revolutionise manufacturing processes, enhancing efficiency and precision. And this is just the beginning.

Data Scientist under the Fire, who will survive the storm?

A burning question in IT and Data Science communities is whether models like ChatGPT will replace our jobs in the near future. Most developers argue that these models lack ‘human-like’ understanding and, thus, cannot fully take over. Conversely, many believe that these models will indeed automate most tasks, except for what we term “reasoning.” Therefore, a more pertinent question might be, “How much will they improve our work?” From this perspective, these models will significantly change how we search for information, code, and even communicate.

Many of us use ChatGPT or Gemini daily. It’s well known that LLMs don’t always provide the best answers, often giving typical responses and sometimes misleading with ineffective solutions. However, the time people spend working with LLMs is dramatically increasing compared to other ‘classical’ tools.

A new and promising trend is the creation of numerous specialised agents, each handling specific tasks. For instance, one agent writes initial text, another checks and corrects it, and others optimise it further. Unlike current systems where a single AI model performs multiple functions less efficiently, this multi-agent approach can deploy hundreds of agents, each with a focused role, dramatically increasing efficiency and precision and potentially replacing many traditional jobs through automation.

Within the next 3-5 years, we will see LLMs replacing many typical data science activities. These tasks will include writing code, preparing detailed summaries and conclusions, and even selecting and deciding on the most appropriate models for various applications. This shift will significantly streamline data science workflows, making processes more efficient and potentially reducing the need for human intervention in routine tasks. As LLMs advance, their ability to handle complex data science functions will only improve, leading to more accurate and faster outcomes.

In the following few articles, we will review how Computer Vision models differ from LLM, why LMM (Large Multimodal Models) are becoming increasingly popular, and the most interesting directions of Generative AI development. Stay tuned!

Reference

1. https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-new-math-of-how-large-scale-order-emerges-20240610/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR01z4KRzVOlKSB20INtUjTMPGk–yYss4ugbEMj1OXEtsv7TsztiREaEF4_aem_AS8zhUE_JD87al61yRx8TdSRsCLGAXmc97Lt33JxOwB5SKbcORzC1NiaKPXJsgHdRX9OYqJxDU5dam11XpMCLUzn

2. A Revolution in Biology, https://www.bitsofwonder.co/p/a-revolution-in-biology

About the author

This article was written by Ihar Rubanau, Senior Data Scientist at Sigma Software Group.